According to the RaiNews portal, El Niño intensified over the past month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2,0 °C in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and is expected to continue strengthening until the end of the year. Subsurface temperature anomalies reached +10,0 °C at depth. A report from the NWS Climate Prediction Center also records westerly wind anomalies at low altitudes and easterly winds at high altitudes, extending from the western equatorial Pacific to the central-eastern Pacific.
The official ENSO forecasts compiled by the CPC combine models from North America and other countries. For the period from October to December 2026, they indicate a 69% probability of a historic event, which would surpass the intensity of previous El Niño episodes since 1950 (+2,5 °C). "The coupled ocean-atmosphere system has shown a strengthening of El Niño," the report states.
In Europe, the effect is indirect, without the direct impact felt in countries bordering the Pacific, but it raises the planet's average temperature. The phenomenon favors strong and long-lasting subtropical anticyclones over Italy in the summer. With an event of this magnitude, the chances of impacts linked to El Niño are greater, although not guaranteed, the report concludes.
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Read the original article in Italian at RaiNews.
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