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... Euro Today 6,04 BRL

El Niño intensifies and could change autumn and winter in Italy.

Report says anomalies of up to +10°C in depth and a 69% chance of a historic event between October and December 2026.

El Niño intensifies and could change autumn and winter in Italy.
El Niño intensifies and could change autumn and winter in Italy. Photo: reproduction / RaiNews.

According to the RaiNews portal, El Niño intensified last month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2,0 °C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Subsurface temperature anomalies reached +10,0 °C at depth. The report from the Climate Prediction Center of the US meteorological service also points to westerly wind anomalies at low altitudes and easterly winds at high altitudes, from the western to the central-eastern equatorial Pacific.

Official ENSO forecasts indicate that the phenomenon will continue to strengthen until the end of the year. For the October-December 2026 quarter, there is a 69% probability of a historic event, which would surpass the intensity of all El Niño episodes recorded since 1950 (+2,5 °C). "The coupled ocean-atmosphere system has shown evidence of a strengthening of El Niño," the report states.

In Europe, the impact is not as direct as in countries bordering the Pacific. The phenomenon raises the planet's average temperature and favors strong and long-lasting subtropical anticyclones over Italian regions during the summer. The equatorial subsurface temperature index rose in July, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline, meaning that the heat reached deeper layers of the ocean.

Read also Summer of 2026 could surpass Italy's 2003 heat record.

Read the original article in Italian at RaiNews.

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