A study of the North East Foundation reveals that northern Italy will need to attract two million immigrants to maintain current employment levels and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The “demographic ice age” is predicted to reduce the workforce by 2,4 million people by 2040, requiring drastic measures to offset population decline, the study says.
According to the foundation, around one million foreign workers will be needed, including their families, which will represent an increase of two million immigrants in total.
The regions that will need immigrants most are Lombardia (528 thousand), Veneto (455 thousand), Piedmont (372K) and Emilia Romagna (206 thousand).
Policies to attract young people, increase female participation in the labor market and prolong working life will not be enough to reverse the downward trend.
Italy's internal migration flows will also not compensate for the reduction, as the drop in the birth rate is a national phenomenon.
Most affected regions
A Lombardia and Veneto are the regions that will most need immigrants due to low migration flows from other parts of Italy.
On the other hand, Emilia Romagna, due to its greater attractiveness, will need a proportionally smaller number of immigrants.
However, no region can ignore the need for immigration without compromising its economy.
Future projections and needs
The Northeast Foundation's projections are based on current employment levels. If there is an increase in demand for workers to sustain economic growth, the number of immigrants needed could even double.
To grow economically by 1% per year, an even greater increase in immigrants would be necessary, considering that between 2006 and 2023 the Italian GDP grew 0,7% per year, adding 1,1 million jobs.
The complete study data is in Note 4 of 2024 of the North East Foundation, which is the last in a series on the effects of demographic glaciation on the job market. The note also discusses possible counterattacks to mitigate these impacts, and is available on the foundation's website (and can be read here).
The urgency of attracting immigrants is clear, and the implementation of effective policies will be crucial to ensuring the economic sustainability of northern Italy in the coming years.
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